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"The First 10,000 Years" is a catastrophe market simulation developed by Gary Zhexi Zhang and Agnes Cameron. A catastrophe market is a market for CAT bonds and other insurance-linked securities, used by the re-insurance industry to finance the risk of catastrophic events. Holders of CAT bond notes earn attractive premiums at the risk of losing their principal investments in the event of an possible future catastrophes. Catastrophic events are uncorrelated with the wider financial market.

The main visualisation shows a simulation of hurricanes in the North Atlantic. Using the HURDAT2 database of the National Hurricane Center (U.S.), which maintains a record of hurricane activity from 1851 - 2019, "The First 10,000 Years" generates speculative storms by perturbing historic hurricane tracks.

The simulation is based on techniques used in the catastrophe insurance industry to model and price future natural disaster risk. Namely, a "10,000-year model", which predicts the catastrophic risk of upcoming storm activity by simulating 10,000 different versions of the next hurricane season.

Each time a hurricane is seeded, new catastrophe bond notes are issued in the live market comprising human and software traders. Volatility in the market price of bonds reflect the fluctuations in pressure, intensity and landfall risk as a hurricane track develops.

16.10.20 - after the busiest hurricane season on record, is temporarily closed to new traders. early trading for next season's simulation will begin in 2021. for access, please submit your email below.